orts around the world have geared up for tremendous expansion in the past decade. Large ports – such as those in Rotterdam, Port Saïd and Shanghai – are investing heavily in large-scale high-volume container (and other) terminals, but smaller ports also have made their move up the market, due to the shortage of terminal capacity in the hub ports and increasing feeder volumes.
      With the larger volumes come larger vessels. Ports need to upgrade their approach channels and port basins to accommodate the larger vessel sizes. Furthermore, hinterland transportation systems are being tailored to complete the supply chain from supplier to customer.
      While this activity is ongoing, the global economy was hard hit with the effects of the financial crisis developing from the last quarter of 2008. Demand for products decreased strongly in the past six months, and the international transport sector is affected as well. The trunk routes from Asia to Europe and the United States are carrying less cargo then before.
      The Port of Rotterdam, for instance, concluded 2008 with a 2.7-percent overall growth figure in cargo volumes, but experienced declining throughput in many sectors in the last months. Rotterdam is predicting a further decline of container throughput of about 5 percent in 2009. In the Chinese ports, similar trends are observed, with Shenzhen and Shanghai experiencing 15-percent and 6-percent decreases, respectively, in container handling in December 2008. While their annual growth rates were still positive, they were significantly lower than in preceding years.       How should ports cope with these unfolding events, and how should ports adapt in terms of their development strategy?
      Where long-term development is concerned, ports should keep their focus on those long-term prospects. Ports have always been forced to be flexible in their development.The planning horizon of port master plans is 20 to 30 years, and planning parameters will have to reflect the global, regional and local economic situations during this time period.
      The timing of projects is more crucial. Projects that came into operation recently will probably have a difficult start, whereas projects that are in initial stages may be tailored to the short-term revised forecasts and be developed at a slower pace.
      The development strategy should be tailored to the long-term developments in the market, and these will see through the current rough times. Improving port and terminal efficiency, safety and security and increasing emphasis on environmental considerations are, under any circumstance, essential requirements for modern port operations. When throughput volume is under pressure, it is even more important to consider these aspects and differentiate from competitors.       An interesting case is Port Saïd in Egypt. Where the Suez Canal meets the Mediterranean Sea, a new multipurpose port has been planned in the Sinai Desert. With no deviation from the trunk routes from Asia to Europe, the location is very strategic and offers plenty of opportunities for a variety of cargo handling and value added activities. The port is becoming a major container (transshipment) port, but will also diversify with major terminals for dry and liquid bulks and multipurpose cargos.
      This might make Port Saïd less vulnerable to downfalls of a specific trade. The opportunity to develop a large industrial zone adjacent to the port as part of a single integrated concept will cater to additional volume of imports and exports via the port terminals.
      The efficiency of the integrated facility can be further optimized by using modern information and communications technologies (ICT). When the port and industrial complex communicate via ICT systems, this allows stakeholders to monitor and control all elements of the logistic supply chain in the port and industrial zone.       In the Port of Rotterdam, the construction of the Maasvlakte 2 project has recently started. This ambitious project will result in 2,000 hectares (4,942 acres) of new port area and also comprises 750 hectares (1,853 acres) of nature and leisure development.
      The new port will be able to receive the largest container vessels currently on the market and on the drawing board. A core element of the new project is the focus on environmental aspects related to the new port construction works. The new project aims for net zero emissions, due to compensating environmental measures within the project. Terminal operators will have to comply with stringent requirements in terms of hinterland modal split (barge, rail and road) and sustainability in their operations (clean engine technologies, energy, industry clustering).
      The first contracted terminal operator can start operation in 2013. In the meantime, another element of the Maasvlakte 2 project rises in importance: the optimization of space utilization in the existing port areas of Rotterdam. Unused port expansion areas and relocation of companies and terminals have left parts of the port underutilized.
      Smart new uses for these sites can increase the efficiency of the port, which is vital in times of economic challenges. Smart uses can be found in co-siting of specific industries, temporary functions or anticipating future relocation of businesses to other parts of the ports. Apart from long-term large developments, this can provide the opportunity to also anticipate changing circumstances in the short term to gain new momentum.       Whereas adaptability is important in developing terminal areas, it is less obvious for the port basins. The dimensions of the water areas need to be tailored to the maximum anticipated future vessel sizes. This is a complicated matter, since it often involves speculating on if and when even larger (container) vessels than currently on order will become available.
      Forecasting is still required in this field, and anticipating bigger has always proved to be true. Developments in ship sizes have been fast, and this year several 14,000-TEU vessels will enter the still challenging market.
      The previously described ports are both ready to serve these vessels, which will probably consolidate their services in the near future to the mega-hub ports on either side of the oceans.
      Ports will have to face rough seas ahead, but the prospects of calmer weather and eventually a sunny future are a common shared vision for the future of maritime transport. When this will happen, we will only know afterwards. But it is key that port development plans have sufficient intrinsic flexibility to cope with the capriciousness of global economics.
      Short-term adjustments to long-term master plans are what real port development planning is about, whether it be fast-track increase of terminal areas, or optimizing existing facilities to be as lean, efficient and cost-effective as possible. The tools to do both are available. It is the art of the port planner and port management organization to use them with care and at the right moment.

      Michiel de Jong, MSc, is senior project manager/consultant for DHV Consultants and Engineers (www.dhv.com), a global consultancy based in Amersfoort, The Netherlands.