Population growth will continue to dictate development needs and growth patterns for many years:
Despite the launching of a variety of international programs and much discussion at high levels, the world still has no effective global population management plan. In a few nations the collective decisions of the people have led to a reduction of the growth rate and a high degree of population stability. China has achieved a low growth rate via strict enforcement of government limits.

In many Third World nations, however, population growth continues unchecked. Those who cannot feed their children today are producing more children who will be unable to feed their offspring tomorrow. The multiplier effect promises chaos.

In many other nations, leaders oppose any kind of population management on religious grounds. Also, there are some nations in that demographic competition among racial groups that spur the creation of large families, each trying to gain political control by weight of numbers.

Given these circumstances, it appears realistic to expect continued population growth and a continuing increase in the demands for goods and services.

The free market or private enterprise system offers the
best possibility for meeting world needs:
The much-publicized Cold War between the Communists and the West during the second half of the 20th century was outwardly a military confrontation. It was decided, though, by a competition between development concepts. It was a contest between enterprises planned and operated by central governments versus those conceived and run by individuals and private entities.

The classic contest took place around the world over a period of several decades. Each side invested heavily in programs and projects for improving the quality of life of the people they served.

By the latter part of the century it was clear who had won. The communists and socialists were in full retreat.

A major factor -- we are tempted to say the deciding factor -- in this victory was the work of the development groups working at local, state and national levels throughout the free world. Quietly but persistently, they promoted policies and programs for improving the business climate.

On the communist side, when the need for a new manufacturing facility was identified, a central planning group decided what to build and where to locate it. Political factors weighed heavily. Often uneconomic sites were chosen, and performance was poor.

In the West, executives of private companies chose locations in consultation with area development groups in a fiercely competitive environment. They sought to find the most economic site regardless of political or other extraneous factors. The result was a facility that produced more, better and cheaper products.

Economic development units operating at state and local levels worked with private firms to implement tens of thousands of productive projects. In the aggregate, they made the difference.

The people who handled these projects were the real heroes of the Cold War. Unfortunately, their work went largely unnoticed. Most Nobel prizes in economics are given for theory rather than practice.

There is a new global social order in that performance in a fast-changing environment is the dominant factor for success and survival for individuals, companies and governments:
Survival of the fittest is an old concept that now has a new meaning. The fittest are those who can adapt to globalization and technological advances quickly and easily. As never before, those who cannot or will not adapt to change will fall by the wayside.

For individuals, this means joining a new group we call "globalites" -- people who adapt quickly to globalization. They jet around the world, operate on a 24-hour clock, deal with languages and currencies, accept strange customs and effectively manage global functions despite any and all obstacles.

For companies, adaptation means using universal communications and transport to minimize national boundaries; it means compressing the time scale; and with more open societies around the world, it means taking advantage of vast new opportunities.

For governments, it means operating honestly and openly in a new environment in which public opinion is extremely important. It means recognizing that controlling the flow of information is no longer possible and that no government can thwart the will of the people for very long.

It will be required that all new developments be planned to harmonize with the natural environment:
Out of necessity, protection of ecosystems will be a top priority. Public opinion, economics and common sense will insist that natural assets be conserved and, where necessary, repaired.

During the last years of the 20th century, the ecology and development sciences were in the process of merging. The professionals most in demand were those who could plan a new facility so that it accommodated environmental concerns.

This new professional group henceforth will plan "green infrastructure" as an essential element of every community and will include "green accounting" as a part of every project feasibility study. They will bring together such seemingly diverse land uses as nature preserves and highways.

This collaboration will produce extensive new greenways that will encircle major metro areas. They will provide permanent assets for urban dwellers and wildlife.

The concept of "idea harvesting" will be recognized and adopted as a strategy for the most sophisticated economic development programs:
During the 20th century we saw a sequence of events that was identified with numerous successes. This was the scientific discovery, followed by a technological breakthrough, leading to commercial applications and the consequent development of an entire industry. The result was more and better jobs and an enhanced quality of life for millions.

In the decades ahead, alert planners will seek to systematize this process of moving, step-by-step from the idea stage to ultimate harvest of benefits. This new science, which we call "geo-economics," began to emerge in the last half of the 20th century and will receive much more attention. Competing areas and groups will seek to find better ways to accelerate the development process and localize it in specific places.

Economic development and quality-of-life enhancement will be a high priority for almost all governments and business institutions. Intense competition will drive development units to employ the highest applicable technology.

Site-seeking firms will use new analytical systems to find the locations where total costs are lowest. The 20th century revealed that labor-cost-oriented companies would not hesitate to move. The shift from New England to the South, and then to Puerto Rico, Mexico and the Pacific Rim, will continue. In the early part of the 21st century, industry will mobilize the labor force of mainland China and, after that, South Asia and Africa.

In pursuit of this objective, they will employ an army of professionals to build massive databases. They will utilize artificial intelligence programs to find competitive advantages. They will function in a saturated technology atmosphere.

Technology will be a vital factor in almost all major political and economic issues. It will play an important role in every election, every campaign, every debate. In fact, scientific prowess will be the key to world leadership.

It is a fact that every great development begins as an idea in the mind of one human being.

Real estate recessions will continue to be a part of the development pattern:
When we look at development over a long time period, we find that there is a boom-bust cycle in real estate that has not yet been conquered. In recent decades we can note sharp recessions in the mid-1970s and again in the early 1990s.

At the beginning of each cycle investment is slow and tentative. Then, after a few years of strengthening economy, there is much confidence and enthusiasm. Investors eagerly provide funds for new projects. Overbuilding occurs and the market collapses. Such cycles appear to occur at intervals of 10 to 20 years, with 15 years being typical.

For example, in the early 1970s investors perceived a great opportunity to build hotels in the Orlando, Fla., area to serve the new Disney World traffic. A cautious investor retained a consulting firm to study the feasibility of his project and received a positive report. What he did not realize was that 10 other investors were concurrently planning similar projects. There was market feasibility for one project, but not for 10, and so the area was temporarily glutted with empty rooms.

The collapse of the real estate market in Japan in the early 1990s provides an even more striking example of what can happen. The lesson is to proceed with extreme caution when there has been a long interval since the last market recession.

The American dream is alive and well:
Some observers look at all of the pitfalls in development and declare that the days of great opportunities are gone forever. They must be recognized for what they are -- economic development Malthusians.

We believe the events of the 20th century provide absolutely convincing proof that we live in a world of constantly expanding opportunities. Bill Gates, one of the world's richest men, succeeded in an industry that did not exist 20 years ago. That industry alone has spawned thousands of enterprises that today provide jobs for millions of people.

There will be many more such success stories in great new industries such as nano-technology, molecular engineering and dozens of others that we cannot begin to visualize. Those who have faith in the system and work within it will prosper!

The development time scale will continue to shrink:
Forecasts of things to come are no longer just the stuff of cocktail conversation. The art or science of futurism will play an increasingly vital role as the time scale continues to collapse.

Futurism alerts people, companies and governments to upcoming changes. Futurism is, therefore, a key element in the world's early warning system -- our defense against catastrophic failures in Earth's systems.

Thinking years ahead gives us warnings about such possibilities as global warming, ozone depletion, overpopulation, species extinction and many other hazards. Via futurism we identify threats and gain lead time in that we can, it is hoped, take effective counter action.

It is no exaggeration to say that global lead time is a key to survival of our civilization!

An extreme example is the threat of a large asteroid appearing out of space on a collision course with Earth. At present, we have no defense mechanism and, with only a few days warning, we could only watch helplessly as our destruction approached. Howev-er, with more time we might prepare a fleet of rockets armed with powerful missiles that could be fired at the asteroid to change its course enough to cause it to miss us.

Futurism thus serves the early warning needs of the world, its nations and its cities with regard to matters of security and quality of life. For the family and individual it provides psychological and emotional support during times of change. And, for companies and business ventures, futurism is a key factor in competitive survival and growth.     SS